Geopolitical Cyber Event Prediction

Using Reverse Attack Surface Analysis - RASA

While this methodology is closely related to adversarial infrastructure analysis, RASA takes into account evidence of threat actor intention, as well as planned and active targets, which substantially assists in preempting future attacks. Additionally, RASA specifically identifies areas where threat actor operational security is faulty or inadequate which in many cases can expand an investigation into fortuitous and unforeseen directions. Most importantly, Vigilocity’s unique domain registration intelligence platform uses RASA to deliver a linear perspective of the geopolitical landscape, as it reflects the intentions, plans, and actions of a wide range of actors, including individuals, organizations, and governments as well as their likelihood of overlap. This is crucial to identify visual patterns, outliers, and trends that are difficult, if not impossible, to detect through conventional analysis.

One of the key strengths of Vigilocity’s RASA is its ability to identify emerging trends and subtle changes in the geopolitical landscape based on definitive outliers that clearly emerge in the data. This is essential for predicting future events, as even small changes can have significant implications. As articulated earlier, the RASA methodology is not based on intuition or guesswork, but on quantitative analysis, qualitative indicators, and empirical evidence. This evidence is then used to rapidly respond to the emerging, active, or impending threat accordingly which may include (at minimum) continued surveillance of the threat actor, malicious infrastructure take down, security control updates, and law enforcement notification. The intention of this report is to exhibit several examples of actual events (historical and active) that could have been mitigated and in some cases prevented altogether had actions been taken supported by the findings illustrated herein.